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August 2007

August 27, 2007

The Week Ahead in the Capital Markets

We have a world class secondary market department and they are kind enough to send out weekly updates to us sales monkeys. I like posting it as it is both a great source of technical and anecdotal information. Please let me know your thoughts!

The Week Ahead in the Capital Markets - August 27, 2007

The warehouse lenders took center stage as the mortgage drama took another grim turn.  Warehouse lenders (they lend money to mortgage bankers to make their loans) clamped down on their lending policies last week.  One said it needed 20% down on any loan that wasn’t headed for a government agency.  Another said that it would fund “up to a price of 0%” on any stated income product.  Yet another said it was shutting down any mortgage banker holding unsaleable loans.  Mortgage bankers scrambled to find financing for their loans, and bank-owned mortgage lenders gained yet another competitive advantage. 

It began with sub-prime loans going bad, and then really bad.  In March, the problem leapt up the credit curve to Alt-A loans.  Then corporate credits, the yen carry trade, and AAA CDOs blew out.  The AAA jumbo market fell apart, and we worried that the mortgage industry’s largest player was going under.  All along the way, mortgage bankers, REITs, and mortgage investors imploded.

So where and when does it all end?  Foreclosure rates are double last year’s pace.  Delinquent loans are piling up faster than they have since 1990.  Real estate folks by the thousands are losing their jobs.  And nearly $1 trillion of adjustable mortgages rates are set to rise in the next year, making all of the above that much worse.  A recession would seem almost inevitable, and will certainly occur in the opinions of Angelo Mozilo and many others.

Albert Edwards at Dresdner Kleinwort puts the odds of a recession at 40%, and thinks Fed funds and bond yields might fall below their previous cyclical lows of 1% and 3.1%, respectively (as reported by Barron’s).  Stocks are hanging in for the moment, but Edwards thinks they could fall by historic proportions.  “Strong and steady growth rates in the U.S. are a Ponzi-like mirage built on an unsustainable mountain of debt."  A 0.25% Fed rate cut is already baked in to the market for the September 18th meeting.

Elizabeth Edwards said the problem with John Edwards' fundraising -- you know, compared to the other candidates -- is she can't make him black and she can't make him a woman. That's the same problem Michael Jackson's people have. --  (Jay Leno)

August 22, 2007

Liquidity and It's Importance in the Bond Market

This is an article I ran across that simplified the explanation of the function and operation of the secondary mortgage market. It was sent out from an account executive and apparently the information is attributable to the VP of Mortgage Production for a local bank (though I can't find the person's name or company). Overall it is a simple and concise explanation.

In years past a borrower would visit their local Savings & Loan to obtain a mortgage. The Loan Officer at the bank would approve the mortgage and fund it with cash reserves from the vault. This system worked well until the bank ran out of money to lend. Borrowers came to the S&L looking for a loan and were told to come back when a current mortgage was paid off. What the bank needed was a way to sell the loans it made, freeing up the capital to lend to new borrowers. This way they could lend the “same” money over and over, earning an income from servicing the loans and assisting the community by offering a near limitless pool of money.


To address this issue, FNMA and GNMA were established. The goal was to provide cheap mortgage money to prospective homeowners and a high quality bond for the investment community. The bond or Mortgage-Backed Security (MBS) takes mortgages with similar risk characteristics and pools them together. Investors in the MBSs know ahead of time the return they are going to receive, much like a Certificate of Deposit. To ensure the performance of the bond, each mortgage is underwritten to specific guidelines. By ensuring the borrower is both capable (Verification of Employment), willing to repay (credit report) the debt, has the cash to close (Verification of Deposit), and the value is in the property (appraisal), the loans and thus the bond will perform as expected.


During the recent real estate boom underwriting guidelines were relaxed giving way to a whole new menu of products such as the 100% N/O/O (Non-Owner Occupied, or a fancy way of saying an investment property) with credit scores below 600. In addition, to streamline the influx of applications, income and asset verification took a back seat to a borrower with strong credit. With housing prices rising rapidly, the basis for the mortgage, the property, could be sold to cover the note and foreclosure costs if this occurred. This cycle worked well until the price of houses moderated in 2006.


Once the housing market began to cool and prices moderated, foreclosed homes were being sold for less than the note. To add insult to injury, the loans underwritten to the looser guidelines are not performing as hoped. With the value of the collateral in question (falling home prices) and the future performance of the borrowers unknown, investors’ appetites for this risk has waned. To attract investors in this environment, rates had to increase substantially.


Loans sold to GNMA or FNMA remain largely untouched in the recent credit rout because the investment qualities of the loans are well known. The foreclosure and delinquency rates are well within acceptable standards lending support to these products as their interest rates have fallen in the recent weeks.


The recent rapid rise in rates not directly tied to FNMA/GNMA is an example of the pendulum swinging too wide. The fact remains that a qualified borrower is a good investment from a bondholder perspective. In a typical interest rate market, jumbo loans (loans in excess of the conforming limit) with proper documentation carry a yield about 1/4 higher than similar conforming products. Sanity will eventually return to the markets and non-conforming pricing will come in line with their risk characteristics. The depth and breadth of the current subprime issue will determine when that change occurs.

As always, I am here to help educate and inform you throughout this turbulent time. If I can be of assistance in any manner, please don't hesitate to contact me.

August 20, 2007

The Week Ahead in the Capital Markets

We have a world class secondary market department and they are kind enough to send out weekly updates to us sales monkeys. I like posting it as it is both a great source of technical and anecdotal information. Please let me know your thoughts!

The Week Ahead in the Capital Markets - August 20, 2007

The mortgage problem has spread and Countrywide is in trouble. So the Fed is on the move. As a lender of last resort, The Fed just cut the discount rate (the rate at which banks borrower from the Fed through the discount window). In a highly unusual move, the Fed also said banks could borrow for up to 30 days and then renew their loans. The last time the Fed let banks borrow for more than a day was in 1999 for fear of Y2K computer problems. The Fed said, “These changes are designed to provide depositories with greater assurance about the cost and availability of funding.” Changes will remain in place until “market liquidity has improved materially.”


All of a sudden, the fed-funds futures market priced in 1.00% of near-term cuts (Fed funds is the rate at which banks lend balances held at the Fed to one another). Earlier this summer, there were no expectations of rate cuts at all. The world has changed. As Keynes said, “When the facts change, I change my position. What do you do, sir?” According to futures, there is 100% likelihood that Fed funds will be at or below 4.25% by May, and one-month bills currently yield less than 3.00%. ARMs anyone?


The mortgage industry has a black swan problem (a phrase coined by Nassim Taleb). You can have a database with 4,000 white swans. History and the data tell you that all swans are white. But the absence of a black swan doesn’t mean there isn’t one, and risk models fail if one shows up. The likelihood of credit spreads widening to the degree that they have – and on some AAA credits no less – is statistically extremely unlikely, something on the order of one to the power of minus 500! But it did happen, even though the historical data said it was improbable.


Countrywide is the latest victim of the black swan. In a shocking turn of events, mortgage bankers spent last week worrying about Countrywide going away. Countrywide’s business units reach far and wide. Countrywide made $245 billion in home loans in the first half of the year, 17.4% of the nationwide total. Warehouse lines, broker and correspondent loan purchases, securities trading, and an alphabet soup of ancillary services have made Countrywide a force to be reckoned with.


Our industry’s market share leader got hit hard. Already down more than 50% from a price of $45 earlier this year, Countrywide’s stock price sank to a low of almost $15, and recovered by week’s end to $21. That upshot is that while Countrywide’s problems are mostly about a lack of liquidity, a Banc of America analyst thinks they have enough borrowing capacity to survive. He says that the current stock price “fairly balances” the unlikely outcome of a liquidity-induced asset sale and the more likely prospect of an operating, “less profitable” company going forward. We wish them the best.


President Bush did not call Barry Bonds immediately after he broke Hank Aaron’s homerun record. But Bush decided to make the call. Bush said, “I realized I had a rare opportunity to talk to the only guy in the country who is less popular than I am.” – (Conan O’Brien)

August 17, 2007

How Are We Paying Off Our Subprime Mortgages?

Our friends over at The Onion have conducted a survey and here are the results:

Payingmortgage

If none of these options are viable for you, please contact me for some legitimate financing options.

Have a great weekend!

August 16, 2007

Mortgage Market Update

I apologize for the lack of posts this week, but my time has been significantly occupied advising clients and conducting planning sessions this week. In addition I have spent a tremendous amount of time reading and educating myself as to the changes in the mortgage market. We are seeing significant, historical events unfold in the mortgage industry on almost a daily basis. Rather than recap much of what has been said, I'm providing some of the more interesting and noteworthy articles I've run across during the past week.

First Magnus Halts Loans - First Magnus was a very large wholesale lender

Aegis Mortgage Files for Chapter 11 - At one time Aegis was one of the top 30 lenders in the nation

HomeBanc Files for Bankruptcy - A large lender based in Atlanta - and in a related note.....

Creditors Now Awaiting Move by HomeBanc - HomeBanc is also bouncing checks

US Fed Pumps $38Bln into Economy - Largest Since 9/11

Thornberg Cites Financing Woes but Rules Out Chapter 11

Countrywide borrows $11.5Bln to pay the bills

Countrywide Falls; Merrill Cites Bankruptcy Prospect

Accredited Sues Lone Star Seeking Closure Of $400 Mln Takeover - This is the rough equivalent of agreeing to buy a 'classic' European car only to discover during inspection it's a Yugo.

250pxgo_yugo

August 10, 2007

Very Important - Guideline Changes Effective August 8th, 2007

Perhaps we'll be ok if everyone can maintain a sense of humor. This was just sent to me from our Countrywide rep:

Guidelines Changes Effective August 8th

  • All borrowers must have one blue eye and one brown eye to qualify
  • LTV >65% SIVA (Stated Income, Verified Asset) requires a credit score of 849
  • For all LTVs greater than 65%, 360 months of payment reserves required
  • Borrowers must have no bankruptcies in their family history going back three generations
  • A minimum of 25 years self-employment required for all NIV (No Income Verification) at same location
  • Minimum credit for subprime loans raised to 720
  • All non-arm's length transaction borrowers (mortgage, real estate, and family members) will be required to provide full documentation, subject to criminal background checks, wiretapping, strip-searches, and a minimum 12 hours of interrogation by the Department of Homeland Security.

Please note that these changes will go into effect in five minutes. Any locked loans must fund by noon tomorrow.

For those of you not in the mortgage industry, please realize that we have been receiving emails of this sort with legitimate guideline changes on a daily basis from many lenders. You may not have a great appreciation of it but surely all mortgage professionals will.

Have a great weekend!

August 09, 2007

The Truth about Appraisals

The following article is one I have frequently given to clients when appraisal issues have arisen. Hopefully it will help you understand a little more about the process and what goes into an appraisal.


Many consumers are often frustrated when they have a home appraised. Often, they feel that their home is worth more than the appraised value. In many cases they are right!  This does not change the fact that real estate appraisers must adhere to very specific rules and guidelines that are dictated by the lender.  A few years ago, lenders added a requirement to appraisal guidelines, stating that the intended use of the appraisal must be indicated in each appraisal report.  This is simply because appraisals can be used for different purposes, each having different values and rules.


In determining value for the purpose of a finance transaction, appraisers must follow guidelines set by the lenders, which in many cases results in a slightly more conservative estimated value.  Everything that an appraiser adjusts for positive or negative must be bracketed and supported by the comparable sales.  For example, if a home is purchased for $100,000 and the owners choose to add a pool at a cost of $30,000, the value of the home does not automatically increase to $130,000.  The appraiser must determine through a paired sales analysis what the market will support for a pool.  If, in the same marketplace, a comparable home without a pool sold for $100,000 and a comparable home with a pool sold for $115,000, then the appraiser can only support a $15,000 adjustment.  This is the case with any features that an appraiser can adjust for, not just a swimming pool.  There is no set figure for any feature like a view, pool, spa, square footage, bathroom upgrades, etc it must always be bracketed.


On homes two to three years old or newer, upgrades typically can be recovered in an appraised value at actual cost, as the only way for new homes to have these upgrades is to pay actual cost.  This is typically reflected in higher selling prices.  However, when dealing with older homes, upgrades usually do not recapture their full cost for the same reasons indicated in our previous example dealing with the addition of a pool. Here is an extreme example: If a 40 year old home in average-to-good condition is purchased for $100,000 and the buyers choose to tear down the existing dwelling and build a new house at a cost of $100,000, the value is not automatically $200,000.  The reason for this is because the original structure had value. Unless the home is in very poor condition, the sales price reflects value for the subject improvements.  Therefore in this case, if the value of the original dwelling was $50,000 with the remaining $50,000 being land value, the new estimated value would be closer to $150,000, meaning that when the existing structure was torn down, that constituted a loss of $50,000 in value.  The same applies to a kitchen or bathroom remodel, in that the original kitchen or bathroom had value in its original condition.  This is why the cost of upgrades or remodeling of older homes can rarely be fully recaptured.  Again, there is no set figure only what the market will support for an upgrade or remodeled home vs. one that is not.


State and lender guidelines require appraisers to base value on closed and verified comparable sales. Although property values are increasing in most areas of the country, typically lenders will not allow time adjustments to be made on comparables that sold within the past 6 months. In regards to pending sales and listings used as comparables in a report, some lenders actually require appraisers to use both a pending sale and a listing.  This is not for the purpose of supporting a higher value in the lenders eyes; it is only to show that current market activities still support the closed comparable sales used.  When using pending sales or listings as comparables, lenders want to see an adjustment made for possible negotiations. (Yes, even though many homes over the past couple of years have sold above their list prices!)  Typical adjustments are usually between 5% and 10% off of the list price.  This guideline is a safeguard to prevent appraisers from appraising too high.  Furthermore, guidelines also indicate that appraisers can only base their opinion of value on sales that have closed escrow, and the pending sales and listings can only be used to support the closed sales.


If the appraisal were completed for a reason other than a mortgage finance transaction such as to determine a reasonable list price, you would likely see a higher estimated value.  As in this case, listing and pending sales would be the primary support for the value estimate.  When property values in a given marketplace are in the process of a drastic increase, this allows an appraiser to value property in real time based upon current pending sales or listings rather than sales that, although they may have closed within the past three months, have actually gone into escrow four to six months prior.


It is also for this reason that, when appraising a home that has just sold within the past three or four months, a lender will not accept an appraisal at a significantly higher value than the previous purchase price based upon the passage of time alone, unless documentation can be provided that indicates the property sold below market value at the time it was originally purchased.  The only way to show an increase in value is to provide documentation that supports upgrades or remodeling completed by the current owners since the last sale transaction took place.  For example, if a buyer purchases a home in November of 2002 for $600,000 and the new owners have added $55,000 in upgrades, given the fact that it is a new home, the appraiser will likely be able to get full value for the $55,000 in upgrades. If the appraisal is documented properly, the appraisal on the home is likely to be $655,000. 


Although there is nothing in writing, appraisers are typically given 5% margin of error by lenders.  Any more than that and the value will most definitely be cut by one of the lenders appraisal review staff personnel. Therefore, an appraiser can fudge a couple of percent. While the reviewer will know when an appraiser is pushing its value, if it is within that 5% range, they will most often let it slide.  If an appraiser pushes beyond the 5%, lets say to 6%, 7% or 8% above and beyond what it is truly worth based upon comparable sales, the reviewer in charge of the file will take it all away and cut the value by the full 7%.  Keep in mind that every single lender in todays mortgage marketplace has a review department.  Therefore, given the example just mentioned, it would not be in the appraisers or the clients best interest to push the value too much.  It could end up exposing the property evaluation to a severe appraisal review!

August 06, 2007

The Week Ahead in the Capital Markets

Note: Sorry for the delayed posting - we had some technical difficulties at the home office today

We have a world class secondary market department and they are kind enough to send out weekly updates to us sales monkeys. I like posting it as it is both a great source of technical and anecdotal information. Please let me know your thoughts!

The Week Ahead in the Capital Markets - August 6, 2007

“The market can remain illogical far longer than you or I can remain solvent,” Lord Keynes famously said.

Last week earned its place in history as the pricing for prime jumbo loans plummeted, and in the words of Mike Perry, Indymac’s CEO, “Right now, other than the GSEs and Ginnie Mae….the private secondary market is not functioning.” 

Investors simply do not have the confidence that they or the rating agencies can predict loan performance with any accuracy.  Therefore, private securities cannot meet investment criteria, and even AAA tranches are not trading.  There is no demand for mortgage assets outside of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae.  The ABX (mortgage credit) and LCDX (corporate credit) indices continued to set new lows.  Most major lenders have either withdrawn or severely restricted their Alt-A offerings, jumbo note rates are headed above 8.00%, and premium pricing is nonexistent.

The historical magnitude of last week’s events, while not yet a feature in the popular press, brought comments from many corners.  Bear Stearns’ CFO calls it the “worst bond market in 22 years.”  That would take in such memorable episodes as the October 1987 crash, the 1994 mortgage-derivatives meltdown, the 1998 Long Term Capital Management debacle and the Enron and WorldCom collapses after the tech bubble burst, reports Barron’s.  Paul Muolo in the National Mortgage News said, “I haven't seen a financial meltdown this swift since the S&L crisis of the mid-to-late 1980s.”  Jim Cramer of Mad Money screamed that he hasn’t seen it this bad since “he was hit on a 5 bid for Citigroup in 1990.” 

Confidence must be restored, and as the mortgage problem has shifted from credit to liquidity, the government has been called on to help.  The central role of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is to provide liquidity to the markets.  Look for the agencies to take action in the days ahead; they are currently formulating their plans.  As for the Fed, credit is no longer easy, and the market is looking for a rate cut.  Fed funds futures predict a 0.25% cut by October, another 0.25% by February, and a 50% chance of another 0.25% cut by next summer.  The FOMC meets this week (statement due Tuesday 2:15pm EST), and so anything could happen. 

Happy Birthday to Arnold Schwarzenegger. 60 years old. You can tell he’s getting up there. Remember when he used to say things like, ‘I’ll be back’?  Now he says, ‘Ow, my back.’  (Jay Leno)

August 03, 2007

Your House

This is one of those real estate centric emails that makes the rounds ever so often, and I thought it was worth sharing.

Your house as seen by...

Yourself...

Yourself

Your buyer...

Buyer

Your lender...

Lender

Your appraiser...

Appraiser

Your tax assessor...

Assessor

Have a great weekend!

August 01, 2007

The Myth of the Equity Rich Home

There are many misconceptions in the mortgage universe, but perhaps none are potentially as dangerous or as costly as this particular mistake. My clients are often caught off guard and I wanted to share this with a larger audience in the hope that it will help someone.

The title of this post captures the issue - the myth of the equity rich home. I have talked to numerous clients who's goal was to pay off their mortgage as fast as possible. (In and of itself, there is absolutely nothing wrong with this goal, though some strategies are significantly better than others.) Some were making one extra payment each year while others were doubling up their payment each month. Their logic was that if anything ever happened, they would have an extra cushion because they didn't owe much on their mortgage in comparison to the value of their home. This couldn't be further from the truth!

Wonderful_life_3This assumption can trace it's roots back to the Depression era in our country. Once upon a time, almost all mortgages were callable. When the stock market crashed in 1929, there was a chain reaction of events that caused an eventual run on the banks (think George Bailey and the Bedford Falls Savings and Loan). The bank's only option to meet the demand of the withdrawals was to call in the mortgages they held. These were generally the same people making the withdrawals, and didn't have the money to pay. We all know how ugly things got as the rest of the Great Depression unfolded. Some of the people that were least affected by all of this were the people that owned their home free and clear.

Things are very different now. Mortgages are NOT callable. Also, your mortgage is most likely not with the bank down the street but rather with a mega-servicer. Many people aren't aware of the fact that frequently the mortgage servicer does not own the mortgage. (For an ultra-detailed behind the scene look at servicing, please see this site). This can cause some challenges in the event someone is late on their mortgage or falls into some type of hardship.

The job of a servicer is just that, to process payments and in the event of a non-payment, take the necessary steps. They have some authority to make arrangements depending on a person's individual situation, but often they just follow orders from the investor that actually owns the mortgage. If suitable arrangements can't be made, the next step is foreclosure.

This brings me to my point. The more equity you have in your property, the more likely the investor will foreclose on your home and foreclose quickly. Think about it from the investors standpoint - you have two loans that aren't performing. Loan #1 is for $250,000 and loan #2 is for $190,000. The difference? House #1 is worth $500,000 and house #2 is worth $200,000. The investor knows with virtual certainty that it will be made whole on house #1 if it forecloses. House #2 is a much bigger risk as there is a much greater chance of suffering a loss. Thus the investor will be much more likely to work out an arrangement (reduced interest rate, forbearance agreement, etc) in order to try to save the situation and avoid foreclosure.

I share this story frequently with clients not scare them (hopefully) but to get them to think about alternatives. One option I share frequently is the idea of paying off your mortgage on your own personal balance sheet. Instead of sending that extra payment to your mortgage servicer, send it to your financial planner. Besides the fact that your money is very likely to grow faster than the cost of your mortgage (over the long run), you have the security of having the funds under your control. If you ever have an issue, you have a large reserve to see you through the hardship instead of parked in your house where it can't help you.

In closing, I wanted to mention that much of what I share is a generalization. Each situation will be different and the information I share may not apply to you for a variety of reasons. Stereotyping is never good (unless you are trying to sell t-shirts for The Onion) and I want to make sure I don't throw everyone into the same bucket.

If you are facing a hardship please feel free to contact me. I am happy to help, even if it's just sharing some advice with you.