Need Mortgage Assistance?

  • I help clients purchase, refinance, and build their dream homes. For a private consultation please contact me:

    Direct: 630.749.4106
    Cell: 978.490.4037

    Email: Click Here

Mortgage Blogs

Financial Blogs

When I Just Need to Unwind

  • 38 Pitches
    Curt Schilling of the Boston Red Sox recaps his starts and shares his views on baseball
  • CelticsBlog
    Everything you need to know about the Boston Celtics...and then some
  • Reiss's Pieces
    Mike Reiss and other Globe columnists keep me up to date on the New England Patriots and other NFL items of note
  • True Hoop
    Henry Abbott (no relation) blogs about everything NBA

Legal

  • The content provided on this website is presented or compiled for your convenience by Tim Abbott and is provided for informational purposes only. It does not necessarily represent the views or opinions of Amerisave Mortgage Corporation. Neither Tim Abbott nor Amerisave Mortgage Corporation assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information disclosed. The information provided on this website should not be construed as offering legal, financial or other advice to be relied on by the reader to make or refrain from making any decision or to take any action. The investment, mortgage or financial services or strategies mentioned in and throughout this website may not be suitable for you. Amerisave Mortgage Corporation is an Equal Opportunity Housing Lender. All rights reserved.

    License Numbers: click here.
Blog powered by TypePad

February 11, 2008

The Week Ahead in the Capital Markets

We have a world class secondary market department and they are kind enough to send out weekly updates to us sales monkeys. I like posting it as it is both a great source of technical and anecdotal information. Please let me know your thoughts!

The Week Ahead in the Capital Markets - February 11, 2008

Stuck in the middle with you.  More evidence of recession pushed short-term rates lower and fears of stimulus-led inflation pushed long-term rates higher.  Fixed mortgage rates are somewhere in the middle, and didn’t change much.  The two-year Treasury yield closed the week below 2.00%, and amongst other things, a weak Treasury auction (where investors balked at super-low yields) sent long-term rates soaring.

“Odds for more rate cuts have done nothing but increase, and traders have begun rumors of another rate cut prior to the March 18 FOMC meeting.  April fed-funds futures place 100% probability on a 0.50% cut to 2.50%.  There is a 30% chance the Fed will cuts rates by 0.75% by then.  Chairman Bernanke speaks before Congress on Thursday about monetary policy.

Bankers cheered lower funding costs brought on by the steepening yield curve.  The curve is as steep as it has been in several years, closing the week at +1.72%.  With more short-term rate volatility on the horizon, mortgage rates remain historically high relative to Treasury yields.

Fixed rate jumbo mortgage rates have not improved, and jumbo prices are withering around three points behind conforming prices.  Effects of the expanded loan limits in the government stimulus plan are not certain, and the higher-limit loans are unlikely to trade at the same prices as their conforming brethren.  In related news, Countrywide Securities let go a large group of professionals due to substantially-reduced levels of activity.

In other news, have you seen www.youwalkaway.com?  The website offers borrowers help/advice on how to “walk away” from their mortgage obligations.  What a world.”

Stocks had another tough week.  They’re off 15% from the October highs.  In Barron’s this weekend, an investing icon, Jeremy Grantham (his firm manages $150 billion), offered some advice for the year ahead.  He thinks the market will bottom in 2010, and “trend-line value” puts stocks about 15% lower by then.  The fourth year of a presidential cycle, where you have a lame-duck president, is usually not good, and we should expect the market to fall about 5% for the year.  The first year of a new presidency, especially one where the party in power changes (no predictions here) usually ends up with the same thing:  a market decline on the order of 5% or so.  If you’re going to stay in the stock market, “value is cheaper than growth,” according to Grantham.

From David Letterman's Top Ten Reasons Mitt Romney Dropped Out of the Presidential Race: #4, Apparently America is not ready for a white male president.  #3, There is that thing about not getting any votes.  And #1, He lost all of his money betting on the Patriots.

January 28, 2008

The Week Ahead in the Capital Markets

We have a world class secondary market department and they are kind enough to send out weekly updates to us sales monkeys. I like posting it as it is both a great source of technical and anecdotal information. Please let me know your thoughts!

The Week Ahead in the Capital Markets - January 28, 2008

“That was a nice refinance boom we had Wednesday morning, although I wish it had lasted a little longer,” said more than one mortgage banker.  As the bond market soared to new heights, conforming fixed note rates were available at or near 5.00%, touching off an avalanche of mortgage origination.  “Wednesday was one of the biggest days the industry has ever seen,” said one trader.  It was an especially memorable day in light of the doldrums that the mortgage business has endured in recent months.

“If you were out last week, you must wonder what all the fuss is about.  After all, mortgage rates only fell 0.02% for the week (never mind the several-point rallies and sell-offs in between), and stocks rose a modest 108 points (never mind the 1000-point range in between).  Along the way, the two-year Treasury yield fell briefly to 1.85%, and Fed Funds futures signaled sub-2.00% funds rates later this year.

For this week’s Fed meeting, there is an 82% probability for a 50bp cut to 3.00% and 28% probability for a 25bp cut to 3.25%.  The Fed’s surprise 0.75% rate cut on Tuesday, and the prospect of a government-led economic bail-out, quelled some panic in the markets and returned stocks and bonds from their extremes.  Much of the talk swirling around the mortgage industry centered on the higher conforming loan limits proposed in Bush’s economic package.  Jumbo fixed rates, meanwhile, continue to worsen, and ended the week nearly 1.00% higher than conforming rates (more than three points worse in price).

The spread between mortgage and Treasury yields hit 2.40% last week, close to record highs of 2.60% set in late 2002.  This spread is driven by many factors, not the least of which is interest rate volatility.  When rates settle down (i.e. when the Fed is not expected to cut or raise rates any time soon), look for this spread to collapse, producing relatively lower mortgage rates. 

Lower short-term funding costs widened the difference between two-year and ten-year Treasury yields to +1.40%, resulting in the steepest yield curve we have seen since late 2004.”

“’Beans in the teens!” was the cry heard in Chicago.  The reference is to soybeans trading at $13.00 per bushel.  ‘Beans set a record of $13.45 earlier this month, and were up 78% last year.  More acreage was devoted to corn (for ethanol production) this year than at any time since 1944.  Add some weather problems in South America and the U.S. Midwest, and you have a recipe for very high soybean and wheat prices.

Tucker Carlson said on MSNBC the other day that John McCain and his wife Cindy went along with Fred Thompson on his honeymoon. Now, look, I knew Fred Thompson didn't like to work hard, but bringing another guy on the honeymoon? Come on. That is just plain lazy.  – Jay Leno

January 14, 2008

The Week Ahead in the Capital Markets

We have a world class secondary market department and they are kind enough to send out weekly updates to us sales monkeys. I like posting it as it is both a great source of technical and anecdotal information. Please let me know your thoughts!

The Week Ahead in the Capital Markets - January 14, 2008

“I don’t like the mortgage business.” – Ken Lewis, CEO, Bank of America

Lewis offered $4 billion for Countrywide because of its “extraordinary value” at the price.  The deal is intended to close in July or August.  The mortgage business heaved a sigh of relief as the prospect of a near-term Countrywide bankruptcy evaporated.

The B of A deal removed some uncertainty from the financial markets, but huge Fed rate cuts are still widely expected.  Fed funds futures have declined 0.50% in two weeks.  Fed policy hinges on financial market risks, and the levels of inflation and growth.  Lately it seems that markets are stabilizing, inflation is accelerating, and growth is slowing.  In speeches last week Fed Chairman Bernanke and Fed Governor Mishkin telegraphed the Fed’s concerns about financial market risks, and the need to pre-empt any downside risks to growth.  Inflation does not appear to be an immediate concern.  In short, the odds for a 0.50% rate cut this month jumped to 90%, and odds favor another 0.50% in March.  Fed funds futures signal a funds rate of 2.60% by the end of this year.

“As more rate cuts were built in to the yield curve, short-term rates fell 0.10% more than long-term ones, and funding costs fell accordingly.  The difference between mortgage and Treasury yields remained steady.  The spread has not widened appreciably in three months, and mortgage bankers are enjoying a healthy decline in mortgage rates.  Lock volume was strong last week, and refinance activity is picking up.

Servicing prices have moved in to two camps:  a high-priced one that believes the record slowdown in prepayment speeds is here to stay, and a relatively low-priced one that believes speeds will accelerate soon.  Prices for conforming whole loans, therefore, are as widely scattered as we have seen in some time.

Jumbo fixed rates continue to languish at approximately 0.75% over conforming rates, and rumors swirled last week about a temporary increase in agency lending limits.  The Mortgage Bankers Association has changed course and is now backing stand-alone legislation that would allow Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase jumbo loans up to $625,000 nationwide.”

Not such good news for John Edwards.  He came in third.  Third.  Proving, yes, there are two Americas and neither one is voting for him.  – Jay Leno

January 07, 2008

The Week Ahead in the Capital Markets

We have a world class secondary market department and they are kind enough to send out weekly updates to us sales monkeys. I like posting it as it is both a great source of technical and anecdotal information. Please let me know your thoughts!

The Week Ahead in the Capital Markets - January 7, 2008

“Stand by for a tumultuous 2008 as the market struggles to move from the shadows back into the light of sounder banking… accompanied by Fed Funds levels at 3% or lower.” – Bill Gross.

“Mortgage rates are now officially low.  Conforming loans with rates in the low-to-mid 5% range are streaming in to pipelines.  Mortgage rates fell 0.55% in the past two weeks alone, and thirty-year fixed rates are near levels where they spent much of 2003 and 2004.  The spread between mortgage and Treasury rates has stopped widening for the moment.  Therefore as Treasury rates dropped, mortgage rates came down.  Mortgage yields traded about 2.10% over equivalent Treasuries in the past few weeks.

While credit is still tight and property values very much in question, we expect loan volume to pick up nicely this week.  It has been seasonally low for the entire industry.  Loan volume is usually about half of its usual pace over the holidays, and this time around was no different.

Jumbo fixed rates continue to languish.  Prices are about 2 ½ points behind equivalent conforming loans, and rates hover at historical wides, roughly 0.75% over conforming rates.  The jumbo market remains a tale of two investor types:  portfolio jumbo ARM rates are aggressive as funding costs drop and banks seek to fill portfolios; jumbo fixed rates are high as the securities market struggles along, offering no good outlet for aggregators.

Bankers cheered as the yield curve steepened.  Tough economic news pushed short-term rates down sharply.  The difference between ten-year and two-year Treasuries closed last week at 1.11%.”

In the wake of Friday’s pitiful jobs report, odds predicted the Fed will cut rates to 3.75% this month and to 3.50% by March.  All of this in spite of oil trading at the long-feared $100 per barrel level, and gold reaching its 1980s high of $850 per ounce.

By the way, I was thinking about this. I think now I'm the only TV host with facial hair, if you don't count the cast of “The View.” – David Letterman

December 10, 2007

The Week Ahead in the Capital Markets

We have a world class secondary market department and they are kind enough to send out weekly updates to us sales monkeys. I like posting it as it is both a great source of technical and anecdotal information. Please let me know your thoughts!

The Week Ahead in the Capital Markets - December 10, 2007

To ease 50bps or not to ease 50bps?  That is the question for Tuesday’s Fed meeting.  Friday’s employment report – not as weak as expected, but still pretty weak – took some steam out of the bond market and tilted the odds towards a 25bp cut.  Jobs, however, reflect an economic picture that is at least a couple of months old.  The Fed will put more emphasis on the current risk in the global markets, and they have to contend with year-end funding costs.  The difference between LIBOR and Treasury rates is a quick measure of global risk.  Hint:  It’s very high right now.  At week’s end, the odds for a 25bp cut stood at 100%, while the odds for a 50bp cut fell to 45%.

“Mortgage rates gave up all of the ground they had gained last week.  A combination of higher long-term Treasury yields and wider mortgage-to-Treasury spreads did the trick.  Jumbo spreads didn’t fare much better, and continued to widen.  Spreads of all kinds remain wide, and the markets don’t seem convinced that current Fed actions or Bush’s proposal will help much.”

The Fed will cut rates and more solutions like the Bush Plan – a hastily conceived and problematic solution, as Barron’s described it – are likely to be unveiled.  The most probable outcome is a mild recession in 2008.  Greenspan used to say that the Fed needs to focus on the long-term threats rather than smaller near-term problems.  John Mauldin opines, “The truly dangerous problem is a credit crunch. Lower rates in a credit crunch will be like pushing on a string. Think about Japan in the '90s. Even zero rates did not help.”

Stocks don’t seem to care.  Oil prices are on the way down and stocks are on the way up.  A reduced nuclear threat from Iran buoyed stocks – did you know gas is seven cents per gallon in Iran?  The stock market is having a grand old time, enjoying the mix of lower interest rates and an economy that is weak but not too weak. 

A quick look at the sub-prime securities market illustrates just how problematic a simple solution can be.  Most sub-prime loans ended up in structures with ten or twenty or more credit tranches, some with floating rates, others with fixed rates.  3/4ths the tranches were usually rated AAA, and they landed far and wide, in everything from CDOs to foreign bank funds, some of which were re-rated in to securities structures of their own.  To top it all off, the first lien securities are defaulting like crazy, and many securities composed of second liens have all but disappeared.  Changing the interest payments that flow in to that mess will be challenging, to say the least.

“Drill for oil? You mean drill into the ground to try and find oil? You're crazy,”
-Drillers who Edwin L. Drake tried to enlist to his project to drill for oil in 1859.

December 03, 2007

The Week Ahead in the Capital Markets

We have a world class secondary market department and they are kind enough to send out weekly updates to us sales monkeys. I like posting it as it is both a great source of technical and anecdotal information. Please let me know your thoughts!

The Week Ahead in the Capital Markets - December 3, 2007

It was like kissing your sister.  Yes it was a good thing that the agencies left conforming loan limits the same – if they strictly followed the housing price index, they would have lowered the loan limits.  Unfortunately, so many originators were hoping for an increase to, say, $1 million that the announcement left the mortgage market feeling a little flat.

“If you needed a conforming fixed loan, last week was your week.   Not so much if you were looking for a jumbo loan.  Conforming mortgages soared, chopping a full 0.25% off of fixed mortgage rates.  Jumbo loan prices unfortunately continued their downward spiral relative to their conforming brethren.  AAA jumbo tranches continue to trade poorly, and jumbos are trading a full point worse than a month ago.  Meanwhile, mortgages had a decent week relative to Treasuries;   mortgage rates are still at four-year wides (2.00% higher than Treasuries), but they reversed some of their recent, dramatic ascent.  And bankers have reason for hope:  The yield curve is steeper than it has been in three years.  And check out August fed-funds futures:  3.10%!”

In what may end up being a dead cat bounce, financials led stock indices on a tear last week.  A spate of financial news – Citi receiving a capital injection, E-trade selling some ABS, Bernanke talking about a Fed ease, Paulson arguing for a sub-prime bailout – took the financial sector index up 10% from its lows.  The financial stocks are still down considerably, of course.  The sector has fallen back to the same level it was seven years ago.

Plenty of cat-calls met Paulson’s proposal to freeze sub-prime note rates, but broad government intervention is nothing new in times of real estate crises and illiquidity.   The Federal Reserve Act and many other changes resulted from financial panics.  Years ago, Fagin assured Oliver Twist that pick-pocketing was a moral thing to do.  It was taking from the greedy rich and giving to the needy poor.  One hundred years ago, a group of bankers met with J.P. Morgan and found a way to end the Panic of 1907.  They injected cash in to the system then, and we’ll probably see more of the same before this crisis is through.   

Here's what I don't understand: Rudy Giuliani had three wives and he's not the Mormon candidate? – (David Letterman)

November 19, 2007

The Week Ahead in the Capital Markets

We have a world class secondary market department and they are kind enough to send out weekly updates to us sales monkeys. I like posting it as it is both a great source of technical and anecdotal information. Please let me know your thoughts!

The Week Ahead in the Capital Markets - November 19, 2007

“Mandatory sales have been very strong relative to best efforts.  The reason:  mortgages are once again trading with ‘zero duration’ and hedge costs are low.  When Treasury yields drop, the market thinks more rate volatility is ahead, mortgage-to-Treasury spreads widen, and mortgage rates do not change.  When Treasury yields rise, the market thinks volatility will subside, mortgage-to-Treasury spreads tighten, and mortgage rates do not change.  The former – rates down – has been mostly the case lately, and mortgage yields are trading a whopping 2.09% over five-year Treasuries.  That’s the widest since 2003. 

Jumbo core prices worsened relative to conforming in the past day or so, but not enough to call it a trend quite yet.”

Short-term rates remain volatile, and the market has begun trading at odds with Fed-speak.  Fed funds futures are predicting – with 86% certainty – that the Fed will cut rates by 0.25% on December 11th.  0.75% of additional cuts are also priced in for the first half of 2008.  Fed Governor Kroszner, on the other hand, said Friday that current Fed funds rates are low enough already to help the economy weather this “rough patch.”  The U.S Treasury is also doing its part to assure global trading partners that a strong dollar is a high U.S. priority.

Meanwhile, “Level 3 assets” is the latest phrase to grab financial headlines, and financial stocks are getting trounced.  The new accounting rule SFAS157 requires banks to divide their tradable assets into three “levels” according to how easy it is to get a market price for them. Level 1 assets have quoted prices in active markets.  At the other extreme, Level 3 assets have only unobservable inputs to measure value and are thus valued by reference to the banks’ own models, according to PrudentBear.com.  A number of leading banks and Wall Street firms hold sizable amounts of Level 3 assets, enough to incite fear among investors and send stock prices down another notch.  As has been true with much of the mortgage meltdown, perception has trumped reality.  Given that investors have little chance of understanding how these Level 3 assets will perform, most investors choose to sell.

As Warren Buffet notes, “When the tide goes out, you find out who’s been swimming naked.”

Welcome to the Dundies!! (AKA the 68th Carnival of Real Estate)

Welcome to the 68th Carnival of Real Estate, which can hence forth be referred to as The 2007 Dundie Awards. Not sure of the context? Perhaps a short video will help:

Without further ado, on to the award that money can't buy.....unless you have $19.99 plus $9.50 shipping. Just don't tell your neighbor.

The Show Me The Money Award - Danilo Bogdanovic shares the Real Estate Agent 2.0 Report Card - What Works and What Doesn't. A great summary and honest commentary on what works and what doesn't.

The Fine Work Award - Sara tells a tale of a recent nightmare in For Sale By Owner: Why I Woke Up Screaming. A list of potential hazards for potential FSBO buyers.

The Spicy Curry Award - The Art Thailand Blog recounts one experience of buying and owning a condo in Thailand.

The Don't Go In There After Me Award - Cindy Lin gives some great advice as it pertains to the realm of home inspection. specifically how NOT to try and get into the industry.

The Whitest Sneakers Award - Craig Schiller takes this award with a very interesting discussion about the need for accountability through statistics for home stagers. Bonus points for being the very first submission this week.

The Grace Under Fire Award - Jonathan Dalton has some interesting thoughts on The truth about NAR and licensing.

The Hottest In The Office Award - Pat Kapowich provides a recap on a recent round table discussion of Real Estate and Mortgage Fraud.

Last but not least, the grand champion of them all:

The Busiest Beaver Award - Mike Mueller puts on his metaphor hat to explain some new accounting rules that will play a significant role in the coming days on Wall Street, and some of the firms to watch.

Thanks again for all of the submissions and have a safe and happy holiday!

November 13, 2007

The Week Ahead in the Capital Markets

We have a world class secondary market department and they are kind enough to send out weekly updates to us sales monkeys. I like posting it as it is both a great source of technical and anecdotal information. Please let me know your thoughts!

The Week Ahead in the Capital Markets - November 13, 2007

“Your eyes do not deceive you.  Treasury yields plummeted last week, and mortgage rates barely budged.  In fact, mortgage rates rose 0.30% relative to duration-equivalent Treasuries.  The spread between mortgages and Treasuries eclipsed 2.00% for the first time in years.  Back in 2002, mortgages traded 2.50% over the curve for a brief period.  For much of 2004, 2005, and 2006 the spread was 1.25%.

It is not a coincidence that spreads are wide today like they were in 2002 and 2003.  Then, as now, the Fed was in a rate cutting mode and there was great uncertainty as to the future of interest rates.  When such uncertainty exists, buyers of mortgages demand a greater relative yield to compensate for prepayment risk.  Hence the wide mortgage-to-Treasury spreads. 

So what will it take to narrow the spread?  Some certainty about interest rates.  If the Fed stops cutting rates sometime next year, and signals that they intend to leave rates alone for some time, it is very likely that mortgage-to-Treasury spreads will come down.

In the meantime, short-term rates are very volatile.  Fed funds futures pushed to levels not seen in some time – August 2008 futures traded down to 3.67% on fears of economic slowdown.  There is only a 50% chance for a rate cut in December, but after that, significant cuts are built in.  Also the yield curve steepened +0.80%, a level not seen since early 2005.  Recall that the difference between two-year and ten-year Treasuries was -0.10% only a year ago.

As for credit spreads, core jumbo prices held in last week, although we saw several price hits worsened for high-CLTV loans.  Fannie Mae also announced price adjustments that will affect core agency loans in the high-LTV, low-FICO bands.  The move by Fannie Mae was significant – It was the first such credit adjustment to their core products in many, many years.”    

The writers are on strike. ... They are calling this the toughest time for comedy writing since those three weeks back in the '90s when Bill Clinton stopped dating.  – (Jay Leno)

November 09, 2007

Fun Friday

Last Sunday's Mister Boffo:

Mrboffo_2

November 05, 2007

Prisoners of Debt

BusinessWeek has a great article regarding collection and charge off accounts post-bankruptcy (thanks to Barry Ritholtz at The Big Picture for bringing it to my attention).

In a financial version of Night of the Living Dead, debts forgiven by bankruptcy courts are springing back to life to haunt consumers. Fueling these miniature horror stories is an unlikely market in which seemingly extinguished debts are avidly bought and sold.

The case of Van Rathavongsa illustrates how canceled debts regain vitality. The Raleigh (N.C.) factory worker pulled himself out from beneath a mountain of bills by means of a bankruptcy proceeding that wrapped up in 2002. One of the debts the judge canceled, or "discharged," was $9,523 Rathavongsa owed to Capital One Financial (COF), the big credit-card company. But Capital One continued to report the factory worker's discharged debt to credit bureaus as a live balance, according to documents filed in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Raleigh...To obtain the home loan, Rathavongsa eventually did what many consumers in this situation do. He gave in and paid Capital One $9,523 he no longer legally owed.

The full article can be found here:

Prisoners of Debt

It's actually quite scary to think about some of the tactics that these institutions are utilizing. If you are in a similar situation and have some questions please feel free to contact me. I am not an attorney but have had a fair amount of experience working with clients to improve their credit. If it's beyond my area of expertise I will happily refer you to a qualified attorney.

October 29, 2007

The Week Ahead in the Capital Markets

We have a world class secondary market department and they are kind enough to send out weekly updates to us sales monkeys. I like posting it as it is both a great source of technical and anecdotal information. Please let me know your thoughts!

The Week Ahead in the Capital Markets - October 29, 2007

A Halloween rate cut in is the bag.  The parade of bad news in the housing market will likely drive rates lower for the foreseeable future.  This in spite of the dollar hitting new lows against major currencies and gold, and crude oil topping $90 a barrel. Odds are 100% for a 0.25% cut this week, and 100% for another 0.25% cut in December. 

“It felt like we were waiting for a monthly employment report on Friday, only we were waiting for Countrywide’s (CFC) earnings report.  CFC reported less loss than expected, which is good for Countrywide and good for the mortgage industry.  Everybody was nervous when CFC’s stock price nearly dropped below $12; it rallied all the way back to $17 in a relief rally on Friday.  CFC’s balance sheet improved on the liability side as well.  Barron’s reports that the yield on CMC’s debt fell 0.40%, and the cost of CFC credit default swaps – essentially an insurance policy against Countrywide going out of business – dropped 1.00%.  All of this good price action is predicated on CFC weathering the storm.  As for the rest of the credit spectrum, ABX indices hit new lows last week, but jumbo core spreads hung in at respectable levels.” 

While nearly half of consumers surveyed said they could not accurately explain what a sub-prime mortgage is, 75% of consumers say banks and mortgage lenders and brokers are “extremely responsible” or “very responsible” for the sub-prime mortgage crisis.  60% assign that level of blame to the real estate industry and 58% do so for borrowers who took out loans they could not afford, reports American Banker.  The survey also found that Americans ranked the sub-prime crisis above global warming and the federal deficit among their most pressing concerns — though it ranked below terrorism, health care, the war in Iraq, the overall economy, and illegal immigration. Seventy-six percent of those surveyed said the sub-prime crisis was “just as serious” as or “more serious” than the dot-com crash of 2000.

From 2004 to 2006, 43.6 million mortgages were issued across the county, 10.3 million of which were sub-prime.  In the prime mortgage space, about 10 million mortgages were originated each year, roughly half of which were refinance transactions.  Bear Stearns predicts that the tightening in mortgage credit will extract between 1.4 to 1.5 million purchase borrowers.  This implies a decline in purchase volume from a peak of 6.2 million units in 2005 to slightly under 4 million units by early 2008.   

Congratulations to Al Gore for winning the Nobel Peace Prize. I thought this was sad: Al had the Nobel Peace Prize for less than a week when O.J. broke in and stole it. – (David Letterman)

October 22, 2007

The Week Ahead in the Capital Markets

We have a world class secondary market department and they are kind enough to send out weekly updates to us sales monkeys. I like posting it as it is both a great source of technical and anecdotal information. Please let me know your thoughts!

The Week Ahead in the Capital Markets - October 22, 2007

Just make it to May (the date of the next national secondary conference).  That was the mantra of attendees at the national mortgage conference in Boston last week, as they bemoaned the terrible condition of today’s mortgage market.  The upshot of the conference was that while volume is slow, the mortgage business remains a tale of two originator types:  those that can effectively compete with agency products, and those that cannot.  The spread markets (jumbo core, alt-A, sub-prime) have recovered somewhat since the Fed rate cut, but securitization volume is pitifully weak, and originators of spread products are still looking for answers.

“Jumbo loan prices are holding steady.  Two weeks ago, spreads moved tighter and they remain at decent levels, equal to pre-collapse levels of the summer.  A few jumbo securities have traded, and liquidity is creeping back.  The same cannot be said for sub-prime loans.  The BBB- ABX index set a new low last week, in spite of hopes for a bail-out from the master conduit proposed by the Treasury.  Regarding conforming products, mortgage rates did not fall as far as Treasury yields last week.  The prospect of greater volatility pushed mortgage rates 0.15% higher relative to Treasuries.  The yield curve, as measured by the difference between two- and ten-year Treasuries, also steepened by 0.15%.  Financial companies that borrow short and lend long cheered the news.”

Odds for a Halloween rate cut soared.  According to Fed-funds futures, a 0.25% cut next week is almost certain, and futures are predicting sub-4.00% Fed funds for next summer. 

Given the severity of the bond market collapse, the stock market has been surprisingly quiet.  Sure the Dow took 126 days to move from 12,000 to 13,000, and just 58 days to zoom to 14,000.  And then it was hit hard late last week.  But a recent blog put today’s volatility in perspective:  “Friday’s 366-point decline rates as only the 626th largest in since the start of the Dow in 1896.  Put in another way, we have seen drops of this magnitude or worse on 2% of all trading days over the past 111 years.”  Tread carefully because stocks could post some historically volatile numbers in the days and weeks ahead.

According to a new report, security screeners at our nation's airports -- this is scary -- failed to find fake bombs hidden on undercover agents 60% of the time. ... President Bush said today, “Well, who cares about fake bombs?” – (Jay Leno)

October 08, 2007

The Week Ahead in the Capital Markets

We have a world class secondary market department and they are kind enough to send out weekly updates to us sales monkeys. I like posting it as it is both a great source of technical and anecdotal information. Please let me know your thoughts!

The Week Ahead in the Capital Markets - October 8, 2007

“Jumbo loan prices – of both the adjustable- and fixed-rate varieties – had a banner week.  Spreads, while not back to pre-collapse levels, are trading at levels that might even be called respectable.  Our sources tell us that while lower credit tranches are not yet trading well, the AAA pieces are as well-received as they have been in months.  Rate sheets came back in stair steps, with Wells posting strong fixed-rate bids early in the week, and CitiMortgage and Chase posting very strong ARM levels late in the week and today.  While spread markets are still volatile, we are getting more optimistic by the day.  Corporate bonds, junk bonds, and LIBOR swap spreads are all moving tighter because liquidity has returned to the financial markets.  Banks are lending, the commercial paper market has stopped its collapse, and LIBOR has returned to approximately 0.50% over Treasuries.”

Even the employment markets seem to be recovering.  “Was it all a dream?” asks Barron’s in reference to August’s terrible jobs report.  September’s report was right on the money (+110,000 jobs) and was full of upwards revisions that made the August report a whole lot better (+89,000 jobs instead of a loss of 4,000).  Friday’s report made trading interesting – the ten-year Treasury fell 100bps and has returned to where it was prior to the Fed rate cut. 

The odds for another rate cut on Halloween dropped to about 50/50, and plunged for any cuts beyond that.  The last three times the Fed initiated a new easing cycle, ten year bond yields dropped 20 basis points or more in the next five days. This time they rose by 20 basis points, which didn’t help mortgage rates a bit.

Are our dreams of lower rates turning in to nightmares?  Bill Gross and John Mauldin don’t think so.  They are both predicting that the Fed will cut rates to 3.75% before the housing mess is done.  At the moment, however, the bond market is clearly worried about inflation.  “The market should start worrying about something else,” said John Mauldin.  “Inflation is not a problem in a recession, and certainly not in one caused by the bursting of the largest housing bubble in US history. Be definition, those are deflationary events.  If we have a simple slowdown I think rates drop to 4% or less. If we see a recession, short term rates will drop below 3%.”

Here's good news: George W. Bush says that he is committed to fighting global warming.  Yeah, well, he nipped that in the bud, didn't he? – (David Letterman)

October 01, 2007

The Week Ahead in the Capital Markets

We have a world class secondary market department and they are kind enough to send out weekly updates to us sales monkeys. I like posting it as it is both a great source of technical and anecdotal information. Please let me know your thoughts!

The Week Ahead in the Capital Markets - October 1, 2007

Jumbo loan prices have improved dramatically from their lows.  Most notably in recent days, prices improved at Wells Fargo.  Other major jumbo investors also have moved pricing tighter.   Relative to conforming pricing, the average jumbo price has improved a full point from the worst levels.  Several investors improved their pricing by two points from the worst.  Spread markets are still too volatile to sound the ‘all clear’ bell, but recent market action bodes well.

Jumbo prices are but one of the markets showing improvement.  Citigroup said that certain homebuilders – D.R. Horton and Lennar – are a “buy.”  The Dow is trading above 14,000.  Corporate bond spreads have moved tighter, and investors are upping allocations to corporates.  The volume of commercial paper, on the other hand, continues to shrink.  Asset-backed commercial paper issuance remains in free-fall.  The decline (or increase) in the amount of CP outstanding is a key, forward-looking economic indicator.  Fortunately, energized by the Fed’s recent cuts to the discount rate, bank lending is replacing the lost CP liquidity.

“The bank was saved but the money was ruined.”  So says William Gouge (1796-1863), one of the best political economists of the American 19th century. He spoke of the panic of 1819, but his words are being repeated by critics of the Fed’s rate cut.  The core argument is that as the Fed works overtime to save banks from their bad mortgage investments, they are risking dollar-based inflation and a loss of confidence.  In the worst case, a collapse of the dollar would result, leading to inflation and high interest rates.

The outcome depends on whether or not the U.S. economy heads in to recession, and its broader effect on the global economy.  Which leads me to the hemline theory, as recently reported in Time magazine:  The length of hemlines predicts how the U.S. stock market will do – the shorter the hemlines, the better the performance.  The hemline theory’s record is hit-and-miss.  Hemlines were short in the Roaring Twenties and got longer just prior to the 1929 stock market crash.  Mini skirts in the 1960s were credited with, among other things, a stock market rally.  Short hemlines accompanied a great market in 2006.  Longer hemlines are showing up in fashions for spring 2008, perhaps predicting economic woes ahead.

As you know, the Iranian president said a lot of stupid things yesterday. My favorite is when he said there are no homosexuals in Iran. Many Americans disputed his claim.  In fact, Idaho Senator Larry Craig volunteered to go over there on a fact-finding mission. – (Jay Leno)

The market will close early on Friday.

September 27, 2007

What Did You Do With Your Summer Break?

It's a day early for Fun Friday but I couldn't let today go by without mentioning the fact that The Office season premier is on tonight. Here is a web only clip that NBC posted on YouTube to catch viewers up on what the characters did with their summer. I hope you enjoy it!

September 24, 2007

The Week Ahead in the Capital Markets

We have a world class secondary market department and they are kind enough to send out weekly updates to us sales monkeys. I like posting it as it is both a great source of technical and anecdotal information. Please let me know your thoughts!

The Week Ahead in the Capital Markets - September 24, 2007

“The dust is still settling after the Fed used ‘an ax instead of a scalpel to cut rates,’ as Barron’s put it.  Mortgages have been volatile.  Tuesday, prices rose 0.50%; Thursday, prices fell 0.75%.  The yield curve steepened.  The 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.16% more than the 2-year yield.  Credit spreads – especially those affecting jumbo core loans – have moved in ever so slightly.  For everything other than cream-puff loans, jumbo core yields remain at very high levels relative to agencies.  Mortgage-to-Treasury spreads narrowed.  Mortgages currently yield 1.65% more than Treasuries, about 0.10% less than pre-Fed levels.  Demand for mortgages is up; banks usually increase their purchases of mortgages when the yield curve is steep.”

The market’s early opinion is that the Fed cut is good for economic growth (stocks soared worldwide) and bad for inflation.  Commodities moved to levels not seen in decades.  The U.S. dollar famously reached parity with Canada’s loonie, and sank to fresh lows against the euro.   Oil and gold soared to new highs.

Bill Gross thinks the Fed will ultimately take rates down to 3.75%, as the housing slump slows the economy.  Whether the Fed cuts rates again, however, will rest on the economy’s performance in the months ahead.  The futures market predicts a 0.25% cut before year end, and another 0.25% cut in early 2008.  Opinions vary.  Bear Stearns believes the Fed will not cut again, and will be forced to raise rates in 2008 as inflation pressures mount. 

The lessons of history are mixed.  Only twice in the last 20 years has the Fed started a rate cutting cycle with a half-point reduction, as noted by Bill Gross. Both times, the economy fell into recession and more rate cuts resulted.  The last two times the Fed acted in response to financial market chaos, however, they cut rates only to reverse course and raise rates shortly thereafter.  Neither the 1987 stock market crash nor the 1998 debt crisis had as much affect on the economy as anticipated, and the Fed eventually raised rates.

A University of Florida student was subdued with a taser after asking John Kerry about the 2004 election.  It was the first time anyone’s been electrified at a John Kerry speech. – (Jay Leno)

September 17, 2007

The Week Ahead in the Capital Markets

We have a world class secondary market department and they are kind enough to send out weekly updates to us sales monkeys. I like posting it as it is both a great source of technical and anecdotal information. Please let me know your thoughts!

The Week Ahead in the Capital Markets - September 17, 2007

It will be a “long slog” for Northern Rock if they wish to remain independent, analysts say.  Proving that the real estate mess has gone global, the Bank of England bailed out Northern Rock, England’s fourth-largest mortgage company.  Northern Rock required emergency financing because it relies on the capital markets rather than deposits for 73% of its financing, reports Bloomberg.  Northern Rock’s stock price is down 63% this year, and its “high cost of wholesale financing” is expected to continue for the foreseeable future.  Sound familiar?

Fears of a global slowdown argue for a 0.50% Fed rate cut this week; last week’s modest turnaround in the credit markets argues for 0.25%.  There is some debate over whether the consensus is calling for 25 or 50, but Barron’s reports a 58% probability of a 0.50% cut, versus a 42% probability of a 0.25% cut.  After this Tuesday, the Fed’s next meeting will be on Halloween.

On the eve of the Fed meeting, signs of inflation are rearing their ugly heads:  gold is trading above $700 per ounce, oil is above $80 per barrel, and the dollar is making new lows.  The credit markets are also recovering slightly:  the spread between LIBOR and Treasury yields is moderating, the mortgage-to-Treasury yield spread is stable at 1.75%, and commercial paper rates are falling from extreme highs. 

The change in the amount of commercial paper outstanding is a one of the most important forward-looking measures for the debt markets.  And it is not looking good.  Liquidity is draining out of the system, and the economy will begin to struggle.  Commercial paper outstanding – including asset-backed commercial paper that sometimes is backed by sub-prime loans – fell by 13% last month alone.  As reported in Bill Coppedge’s news items:  During the 2001 downturn, commercial paper peaked in November 2000 and slid through to December 2003.    The volume fell by 22%, but it took three years to do so.

In his big Iraq report, General Petraeus said the troops can start coming home next summer. ... I believe his exact words were, “And then it's Hillary's mess.” – (David Letterman)

September 10, 2007

The Week Ahead in the Capital Markets

We have a world class secondary market department and they are kind enough to send out weekly updates to us sales monkeys. I like posting it as it is both a great source of technical and anecdotal information. Please let me know your thoughts!

The Week Ahead in the Capital Markets - September 10, 2007

Negative jobs reports have predicted twelve of the last fourteen recessions.  Nevertheless, stock and bond markets reacted quickly to Friday’s report, and a series of Fed rate cuts seems to be in the bag.  The question amongst traders is not whether the Fed cuts rates on September 18th, but whether they cut by 0.25% or 0.50%.  Rumors even circulated about a mid-day rate cut on Friday.  Implying a cumulative 1.25% of upcoming rate cuts, May fed funds futures closed at nearly 4.00%, down almost 0.50% in two weeks.  Several Fed officials will speak this week, and the market will listen closely.

Treasury yields plummeted.  The spread on TIPS (the market’s best guess on inflation) is hovering just above 2%. And Fed funds are at 5.25%.  “The market is screaming for a rate cut,” said John Mauldin. The ten-year yield fell to a level not seen since January 2006, and the two-year fell all the way back to September 2005 territory.  Breaking their pattern of the past few months – where mortgage yields seemed to be stuck in place – mortgage yields fell in tandem with Treasuries.  The mortgage-to-Treasury yield spread held steady at 1.74%, and notional yields fell.  In other markets, the dollar dropped sharply, and gold rallied to $700 an ounce.

The jobs report hasn’t been negative since 2003.  The weakness was broad based and payrolls for both June and July were revised down, from 92,000 to 68,000 in July and from 126,000 to 69,000 in June. That is an average of less than 46,000 a month for the last three months. The economy needs to create 150,000 jobs a month just to tread water.  Economists from Bear to Goldman to Merrill revised global growth projections lower, and most think the U.S. economy is careening towards recession in 2008.  The extent of the economic downturn is uncertain.  The housing and credit problems will take their toll, but fortunately, corporate balance sheets are strong and stocks are trading at a modest 15 times earnings. 

Mortgage bankers are gloomy from the succession of body blows the industry has taken, but most cheered the news of lower rates.  Refinance activity is sure to pick up, but there are challenges ahead.  Bankers don’t just need lower rates, they need liquidity from investors and warehouse lenders, tighter spreads on jumbo product, and stable home prices.  All of which remain in short supply.  Jumbo core spreads are still shockingly wide, although they seemed to have reached a bottom.  There are a few whole loan buyers in the market, but jumbo securitization is non-existent.

Did you know that when President Bush is in Australia, his approval rating goes down the drain counter-clockwise… --  (Jay Leno)

August 27, 2007

The Week Ahead in the Capital Markets

We have a world class secondary market department and they are kind enough to send out weekly updates to us sales monkeys. I like posting it as it is both a great source of technical and anecdotal information. Please let me know your thoughts!

The Week Ahead in the Capital Markets - August 27, 2007

The warehouse lenders took center stage as the mortgage drama took another grim turn.  Warehouse lenders (they lend money to mortgage bankers to make their loans) clamped down on their lending policies last week.  One said it needed 20% down on any loan that wasn’t headed for a government agency.  Another said that it would fund “up to a price of 0%” on any stated income product.  Yet another said it was shutting down any mortgage banker holding unsaleable loans.  Mortgage bankers scrambled to find financing for their loans, and bank-owned mortgage lenders gained yet another competitive advantage. 

It began with sub-prime loans going bad, and then really bad.  In March, the problem leapt up the credit curve to Alt-A loans.  Then corporate credits, the yen carry trade, and AAA CDOs blew out.  The AAA jumbo market fell apart, and we worried that the mortgage industry’s largest player was going under.  All along the way, mortgage bankers, REITs, and mortgage investors imploded.

So where and when does it all end?  Foreclosure rates are double last year’s pace.  Delinquent loans are piling up faster than they have since 1990.  Real estate folks by the thousands are losing their jobs.  And nearly $1 trillion of adjustable mortgages rates are set to rise in the next year, making all of the above that much worse.  A recession would seem almost inevitable, and will certainly occur in the opinions of Angelo Mozilo and many others.

Albert Edwards at Dresdner Kleinwort puts the odds of a recession at 40%, and thinks Fed funds and bond yields might fall below their previous cyclical lows of 1% and 3.1%, respectively (as reported by Barron’s).  Stocks are hanging in for the moment, but Edwards thinks they could fall by historic proportions.  “Strong and steady growth rates in the U.S. are a Ponzi-like mirage built on an unsustainable mountain of debt."  A 0.25% Fed rate cut is already baked in to the market for the September 18th meeting.

Elizabeth Edwards said the problem with John Edwards' fundraising -- you know, compared to the other candidates -- is she can't make him black and she can't make him a woman. That's the same problem Michael Jackson's people have. --  (Jay Leno)

August 22, 2007

Liquidity and It's Importance in the Bond Market

This is an article I ran across that simplified the explanation of the function and operation of the secondary mortgage market. It was sent out from an account executive and apparently the information is attributable to the VP of Mortgage Production for a local bank (though I can't find the person's name or company). Overall it is a simple and concise explanation.

In years past a borrower would visit their local Savings & Loan to obtain a mortgage. The Loan Officer at the bank would approve the mortgage and fund it with cash reserves from the vault. This system worked well until the bank ran out of money to lend. Borrowers came to the S&L looking for a loan and were told to come back when a current mortgage was paid off. What the bank needed was a way to sell the loans it made, freeing up the capital to lend to new borrowers. This way they could lend the “same” money over and over, earning an income from servicing the loans and assisting the community by offering a near limitless pool of money.


To address this issue, FNMA and GNMA were established. The goal was to provide cheap mortgage money to prospective homeowners and a high quality bond for the investment community. The bond or Mortgage-Backed Security (MBS) takes mortgages with similar risk characteristics and pools them together. Investors in the MBSs know ahead of time the return they are going to receive, much like a Certificate of Deposit. To ensure the performance of the bond, each mortgage is underwritten to specific guidelines. By ensuring the borrower is both capable (Verification of Employment), willing to repay (credit report) the debt, has the cash to close (Verification of Deposit), and the value is in the property (appraisal), the loans and thus the bond will perform as expected.


During the recent real estate boom underwriting guidelines were relaxed giving way to a whole new menu of products such as the 100% N/O/O (Non-Owner Occupied, or a fancy way of saying an investment property) with credit scores below 600. In addition, to streamline the influx of applications, income and asset verification took a back seat to a borrower with strong credit. With housing prices rising rapidly, the basis for the mortgage, the property, could be sold to cover the note and foreclosure costs if this occurred. This cycle worked well until the price of houses moderated in 2006.


Once the housing market began to cool and prices moderated, foreclosed homes were being sold for less than the note. To add insult to injury, the loans underwritten to the looser guidelines are not performing as hoped. With the value of the collateral in question (falling home prices) and the future performance of the borrowers unknown, investors’ appetites for this risk has waned. To attract investors in this environment, rates had to increase substantially.


Loans sold to GNMA or FNMA remain largely untouched in the recent credit rout because the investment qualities of the loans are well known. The foreclosure and delinquency rates are well within acceptable standards lending support to these products as their interest rates have fallen in the recent weeks.


The recent rapid rise in rates not directly tied to FNMA/GNMA is an example of the pendulum swinging too wide. The fact remains that a qualified borrower is a good investment from a bondholder perspective. In a typical interest rate market, jumbo loans (loans in excess of the conforming limit) with proper documentation carry a yield about 1/4 higher than similar conforming products. Sanity will eventually return to the markets and non-conforming pricing will come in line with their risk characteristics. The depth and breadth of the current subprime issue will determine when that change occurs.

As always, I am here to help educate and inform you throughout this turbulent time. If I can be of assistance in any manner, please don't hesitate to contact me.

August 20, 2007

The Week Ahead in the Capital Markets

We have a world class secondary market department and they are kind enough to send out weekly updates to us sales monkeys. I like posting it as it is both a great source of technical and anecdotal information. Please let me know your thoughts!

The Week Ahead in the Capital Markets - August 20, 2007

The mortgage problem has spread and Countrywide is in trouble. So the Fed is on the move. As a lender of last resort, The Fed just cut the discount rate (the rate at which banks borrower from the Fed through the discount window). In a highly unusual move, the Fed also said banks could borrow for up to 30 days and then renew their loans. The last time the Fed let banks borrow for more than a day was in 1999 for fear of Y2K computer problems. The Fed said, “These changes are designed to provide depositories with greater assurance about the cost and availability of funding.” Changes will remain in place until “market liquidity has improved materially.”


All of a sudden, the fed-funds futures market priced in 1.00% of near-term cuts (Fed funds is the rate at which banks lend balances held at the Fed to one another). Earlier this summer, there were no expectations of rate cuts at all. The world has changed. As Keynes said, “When the facts change, I change my position. What do you do, sir?” According to futures, there is 100% likelihood that Fed funds will be at or below 4.25% by May, and one-month bills currently yield less than 3.00%. ARMs anyone?


The mortgage industry has a black swan problem (a phrase coined by Nassim Taleb). You can have a database with 4,000 white swans. History and the data tell you that all swans are white. But the absence of a black swan doesn’t mean there isn’t one, and risk models fail if one shows up. The likelihood of credit spreads widening to the degree that they have – and on some AAA credits no less – is statistically extremely unlikely, something on the order of one to the power of minus 500! But it did happen, even though the historical data said it was improbable.


Countrywide is the latest victim of the black swan. In a shocking turn of events, mortgage bankers spent last week worrying about Countrywide going away. Countrywide’s business units reach far and wide. Countrywide made $245 billion in home loans in the first half of the year, 17.4% of the nationwide total. Warehouse lines, broker and correspondent loan purchases, securities trading, and an alphabet soup of ancillary services have made Countrywide a force to be reckoned with.


Our industry’s market share leader got hit hard. Already down more than 50% from a price of $45 earlier this year, Countrywide’s stock price sank to a low of almost $15, and recovered by week’s end to $21. That upshot is that while Countrywide’s problems are mostly about a lack of liquidity, a Banc of America analyst thinks they have enough borrowing capacity to survive. He says that the current stock price “fairly balances” the unlikely outcome of a liquidity-induced asset sale and the more likely prospect of an operating, “less profitable” company going forward. We wish them the best.


President Bush did not call Barry Bonds immediately after he broke Hank Aaron’s homerun record. But Bush decided to make the call. Bush said, “I realized I had a rare opportunity to talk to the only guy in the country who is less popular than I am.” – (Conan O’Brien)

August 17, 2007

How Are We Paying Off Our Subprime Mortgages?

Our friends over at The Onion have conducted a survey and here are the results:

Payingmortgage

If none of these options are viable for you, please contact me for some legitimate financing options.

Have a great weekend!

August 16, 2007

Mortgage Market Update

I apologize for the lack of posts this week, but my time has been significantly occupied advising clients and conducting planning sessions this week. In addition I have spent a tremendous amount of time reading and educating myself as to the changes in the mortgage market. We are seeing significant, historical events unfold in the mortgage industry on almost a daily basis. Rather than recap much of what has been said, I'm providing some of the more interesting and noteworthy articles I've run across during the past week.

First Magnus Halts Loans - First Magnus was a very large wholesale lender

Aegis Mortgage Files for Chapter 11 - At one time Aegis was one of the top 30 lenders in the nation

HomeBanc Files for Bankruptcy - A large lender based in Atlanta - and in a related note.....

Creditors Now Awaiting Move by HomeBanc - HomeBanc is also bouncing checks

US Fed Pumps $38Bln into Economy - Largest Since 9/11

Thornberg Cites Financing Woes but Rules Out Chapter 11

Countrywide borrows $11.5Bln to pay the bills

Countrywide Falls; Merrill Cites Bankruptcy Prospect

Accredited Sues Lone Star Seeking Closure Of $400 Mln Takeover - This is the rough equivalent of agreeing to buy a 'classic' European car only to discover during inspection it's a Yugo.

250pxgo_yugo

August 10, 2007

Very Important - Guideline Changes Effective August 8th, 2007

Perhaps we'll be ok if everyone can maintain a sense of humor. This was just sent to me from our Countrywide rep:

Guidelines Changes Effective August 8th

  • All borrowers must have one blue eye and one brown eye to qualify
  • LTV >65% SIVA (Stated Income, Verified Asset) requires a credit score of 849
  • For all LTVs greater than 65%, 360 months of payment reserves required
  • Borrowers must have no bankruptcies in their family history going back three generations
  • A minimum of 25 years self-employment required for all NIV (No Income Verification) at same location
  • Minimum credit for subprime loans raised to 720
  • All non-arm's length transaction borrowers (mortgage, real estate, and family members) will be required to provide full documentation, subject to criminal background checks, wiretapping, strip-searches, and a minimum 12 hours of interrogation by the Department of Homeland Security.

Please note that these changes will go into effect in five minutes. Any locked loans must fund by noon tomorrow.

For those of you not in the mortgage industry, please realize that we have been receiving emails of this sort with legitimate guideline changes on a daily basis from many lenders. You may not have a great appreciation of it but surely all mortgage professionals will.

Have a great weekend!

August 09, 2007

The Truth about Appraisals

The following article is one I have frequently given to clients when appraisal issues have arisen. Hopefully it will help you understand a little more about the process and what goes into an appraisal.


Many consumers are often frustrated when they have a home appraised. Often, they feel that their home is worth more than the appraised value. In many cases they are right!  This does not change the fact that real estate appraisers must adhere to very specific rules and guidelines that are dictated by the lender.  A few years ago, lenders added a requirement to appraisal guidelines, stating that the intended use of the appraisal must be indicated in each appraisal report.  This is simply because appraisals can be used for different purposes, each having different values and rules.


In determining value for the purpose of a finance transaction, appraisers must follow guidelines set by the lenders, which in many cases results in a slightly more conservative estimated value.  Everything that an appraiser adjusts for positive or negative must be bracketed and supported by the comparable sales.  For example, if a home is purchased for $100,000 and the owners choose to add a pool at a cost of $30,000, the value of the home does not automatically increase to $130,000.  The appraiser must determine through a paired sales analysis what the market will support for a pool.  If, in the same marketplace, a comparable home without a pool sold for $100,000 and a comparable home with a pool sold for $115,000, then the appraiser can only support a $15,000 adjustment.  This is the case with any features that an appraiser can adjust for, not just a swimming pool.  There is no set figure for any feature like a view, pool, spa, square footage, bathroom upgrades, etc it must always be bracketed.


On homes two to three years old or newer, upgrades typically can be recovered in an appraised value at actual cost, as the only way for new homes to have these upgrades is to pay actual cost.  This is typically reflected in higher selling prices.  However, when dealing with older homes, upgrades usually do not recapture their full cost for the same reasons indicated in our previous example dealing with the addition of a pool. Here is an extreme example: If a 40 year old home in average-to-good condition is purchased for $100,000 and the buyers choose to tear down the existing dwelling and build a new house at a cost of $100,000, the value is not automatically $200,000.  The reason for this is because the original structure had value. Unless the home is in very poor condition, the sales price reflects value for the subject improvements.  Therefore in this case, if the value of the original dwelling was $50,000 with the remaining $50,000 being land value, the new estimated value would be closer to $150,000, meaning that when the existing structure was torn down, that constituted a loss of $50,000 in value.  The same applies to a kitchen or bathroom remodel, in that the original kitchen or bathroom had value in its original condition.  This is why the cost of upgrades or remodeling of older homes can rarely be fully recaptured.  Again, there is no set figure only what the market will support for an upgrade or remodeled home vs. one that is not.


State and lender guidelines require appraisers to base value on closed and verified comparable sales. Although property values are increasing in most areas of the country, typically lenders will not allow time adjustments to be made on comparables that sold within the past 6 months. In regards to pending sales and listings used as comparables in a report, some lenders actually require appraisers to use both a pending sale and a listing.  This is not for the purpose of supporting a higher value in the lenders eyes; it is only to show that current market activities still support the closed comparable sales used.  When using pending sales or listings as comparables, lenders want to see an adjustment made for possible negotiations. (Yes, even though many homes over the past couple of years have sold above their list prices!)  Typical adjustments are usually between 5% and 10% off of the list price.  This guideline is a safeguard to prevent appraisers from appraising too high.  Furthermore, guidelines also indicate that appraisers can only base their opinion of value on sales that have closed escrow, and the pending sales and listings can only be used to support the closed sales.


If the appraisal were completed for a reason other than a mortgage finance transaction such as to determine a reasonable list price, you would likely see a higher estimated value.  As in this case, listing and pending sales would be the primary support for the value estimate.  When property values in a given marketplace are in the process of a drastic increase, this allows an appraiser to value property in real time based upon current pending sales or listings rather than sales that, although they may have closed within the past three months, have actually gone into escrow four to six months prior.


It is also for this reason that, when appraising a home that has just sold within the past three or four months, a lender will not accept an appraisal at a significantly higher value than the previous purchase price based upon the passage of time alone, unless documentation can be provided that indicates the property sold below market value at the time it was originally purchased.  The only way to show an increase in value is to provide documentation that supports upgrades or remodeling completed by the current owners since the last sale transaction took place.  For example, if a buyer purchases a home in November of 2002 for $600,000 and the new owners have added $55,000 in upgrades, given the fact that it is a new home, the appraiser will likely be able to get full value for the $55,000 in upgrades. If the appraisal is documented properly, the appraisal on the home is likely to be $655,000. 


Although there is nothing in writing, appraisers are typically given 5% margin of error by lenders.  Any more than that and the value will most definitely be cut by one of the lenders appraisal review staff personnel. Therefore, an appraiser can fudge a couple of percent. While the reviewer will know when an appraiser is pushing its value, if it is within that 5% range, they will most often let it slide.  If an appraiser pushes beyond the 5%, lets say to 6%, 7% or 8% above and beyond what it is truly worth based upon comparable sales, the reviewer in charge of the file will take it all away and cut the value by the full 7%.  Keep in mind that every single lender in todays mortgage marketplace has a review department.  Therefore, given the example just mentioned, it would not be in the appraisers or the clients best interest to push the value too much.  It could end up exposing the property evaluation to a severe appraisal review!

August 06, 2007

The Week Ahead in the Capital Markets

Note: Sorry for the delayed posting - we had some technical difficulties at the home office today

We have a world class secondary market department and they are kind enough to send out weekly updates to us sales monkeys. I like posting it as it is both a great source of technical and anecdotal information. Please let me know your thoughts!

The Week Ahead in the Capital Markets - August 6, 2007

“The market can remain illogical far longer than you or I can remain solvent,” Lord Keynes famously said.

Last week earned its place in history as the pricing for prime jumbo loans plummeted, and in the words of Mike Perry, Indymac’s CEO, “Right now, other than the GSEs and Ginnie Mae….the private secondary market is not functioning.” 

Investors simply do not have the confidence that they or the rating agencies can predict loan performance with any accuracy.  Therefore, private securities cannot meet investment criteria, and even AAA tranches are not trading.  There is no demand for mortgage assets outside of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae.  The ABX (mortgage credit) and LCDX (corporate credit) indices continued to set new lows.  Most major lenders have either withdrawn or severely restricted their Alt-A offerings, jumbo note rates are headed above 8.00%, and premium pricing is nonexistent.

The historical magnitude of last week’s events, while not yet a feature in the popular press, brought comments from many corners.  Bear Stearns’ CFO calls it the “worst bond market in 22 years.”  That would take in such memorable episodes as the October 1987 crash, the 1994 mortgage-derivatives meltdown, the 1998 Long Term Capital Management debacle and the Enron and WorldCom collapses after the tech bubble burst, reports Barron’s.  Paul Muolo in the National Mortgage News said, “I haven't seen a financial meltdown this swift since the S&L crisis of the mid-to-late 1980s.”  Jim Cramer of Mad Money screamed that he hasn’t seen it this bad since “he was hit on a 5 bid for Citigroup in 1990.” 

Confidence must be restored, and as the mortgage problem has shifted from credit to liquidity, the government has been called on to help.  The central role of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is to provide liquidity to the markets.  Look for the agencies to take action in the days ahead; they are currently formulating their plans.  As for the Fed, credit is no longer easy, and the market is looking for a rate cut.  Fed funds futures predict a 0.25% cut by October, another 0.25% by February, and a 50% chance of another 0.25% cut by next summer.  The FOMC meets this week (statement due Tuesday 2:15pm EST), and so anything could happen. 

Happy Birthday to Arnold Schwarzenegger. 60 years old. You can tell he’s getting up there. Remember when he used to say things like, ‘I’ll be back’?  Now he says, ‘Ow, my back.’  (Jay Leno)

August 03, 2007

Your House

This is one of those real estate centric emails that makes the rounds ever so often, and I thought it was worth sharing.

Your house as seen by...

Yourself...

Yourself

Your buyer...

Buyer

Your lender...

Lender

Your appraiser...

Appraiser

Your tax assessor...

Assessor

Have a great weekend!

August 01, 2007

The Myth of the Equity Rich Home

There are many misconceptions in the mortgage universe, but perhaps none are potentially as dangerous or as costly as this particular mistake. My clients are often caught off guard and I wanted to share this with a larger audience in the hope that it will help someone.

The title of this post captures the issue - the myth of the equity rich home. I have talked to numerous clients who's goal was to pay off their mortgage as fast as possible. (In and of itself, there is absolutely nothing wrong with this goal, though some strategies are significantly better than others.) Some were making one extra payment each year while others were doubling up their payment each month. Their logic was that if anything ever happened, they would have an extra cushion because they didn't owe much on their mortgage in comparison to the value of their home. This couldn't be further from the truth!

Wonderful_life_3This assumption can trace it's roots back to the Depression era in our country. Once upon a time, almost all mortgages were callable. When the stock market crashed in 1929, there was a chain reaction of events that caused an eventual run on the banks (think George Bailey and the Bedford Falls Savings and Loan). The bank's only option to meet the demand of the withdrawals was to call in the mortgages they held. These were generally the same people making the withdrawals, and didn't have the money to pay. We all know how ugly things got as the rest of the Great Depression unfolded. Some of the people that were least affected by all of this were the people that owned their home free and clear.

Things are very different now. Mortgages are NOT callable. Also, your mortgage is most likely not with the bank down the street but rather with a mega-servicer. Many people aren't aware of the fact that frequently the mortgage servicer does not own the mortgage. (For an ultra-detailed behind the scene look at servicing, please see this site). This can cause some challenges in the event someone is late on their mortgage or falls into some type of hardship.

The job of a servicer is just that, to process payments and in the event of a non-payment, take the necessary steps. They have some authority to make arrangements depending on a person's individual situation, but often they just follow orders from the investor that actually owns the mortgage. If suitable arrangements can't be made, the next step is foreclosure.

This brings me to my point. The more equity you have in your property, the more likely the investor will foreclose on your home and foreclose quickly. Think about it from the investors standpoint - you have two loans that aren't performing. Loan #1 is for $250,000 and loan #2 is for $190,000. The difference? House #1 is worth $500,000 and house #2 is worth $200,000. The investor knows with virtual certainty that it will be made whole on house #1 if it forecloses. House #2 is a much bigger risk as there is a much greater chance of suffering a loss. Thus the investor will be much more likely to work out an arrangement (reduced interest rate, forbearance agreement, etc) in order to try to save the situation and avoid foreclosure.

I share this story frequently with clients not scare them (hopefully) but to get them to think about alternatives. One option I share frequently is the idea of paying off your mortgage on your own personal balance sheet. Instead of sending that extra payment to your mortgage servicer, send it to your financial planner. Besides the fact that your money is very likely to grow faster than the cost of your mortgage (over the long run), you have the security of having the funds under your control. If you ever have an issue, you have a large reserve to see you through the hardship instead of parked in your house where it can't help you.

In closing, I wanted to mention that much of what I share is a generalization. Each situation will be different and the information I share may not apply to you for a variety of reasons. Stereotyping is never good (unless you are trying to sell t-shirts for The Onion) and I want to make sure I don't throw everyone into the same bucket.

If you are facing a hardship please feel free to contact me. I am happy to help, even if it's just sharing some advice with you.

July 30, 2007

The Week Ahead in the Capital Markets

We have a world class secondary market department and they are kind enough to send out weekly updates to us sales monkeys. I like posting it as it is both a great source of technical and anecdotal information. Please let me know your thoughts!

The Week Ahead in the Capital Markets - July 30, 2007

As Herb Stein famously put it, “If something can't go on forever, it won't.”

Some weeks ago, analysts wondered whet